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Prediction for CME (2020-10-27T03:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-10-27T03:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15988/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a filament eruption from N30E10 of the Earth-facing disk shortly after 2020.10.26T22:30Z and can be seen in all SDO imagery. The strongest darkening can be seen in SDO 193 and 211 between 2020.10.26T22:30Z and 2020.10.27T01:33Z. Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I see clear flux rope signatures on Nov 1-2. The whole structure duration is 11/01 ~12:00 UT to 11/02 ~6:00 UT. The maximum magnetic field strength would be less than 10 nT, but it is higher than the average of the ambient magnetic field. There is a smooth and coherent change in the magnetic field direction with signatures of internal complexity. Low temperature, density and signatures of expansion in the solar wind bulk velocity. This is probably a streamer blowout.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-11-01T08:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-11-01T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note: 


 
Lead Time: 105.73 hour(s)
    
  
 

  
	Difference: 8.68 hour(s)
    
  
  


Prediction submitted by Austin Skipper (GSFC) on 2020-10-27T22:57Z





        		
    

    

        
            




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